@article{71,
  author = {Songlin Li and Biao Zhao and Qi Shu and Vladimir Ryabinin and Ji Dong and Guomin Chen and Fangli Qiao and Ka-Kit Tung},
  title = {Incorporating Ocean Waves at Air-Sea Interface Improves Forecasts of Strong Tropical Cyclones},
  abstract = {<p>Tropical cyclones (TCs), also called typhoons or hurricanes, pose grave threat to life and property. With remote sensing and increasing computing power, more accurate predictions of their storm tracks have been achieved in recent decades. However, the destructive power of a TC depends on its intensity. Yet modern operational forecasts severely underestimate the peak intensity of strong TCs, while overpredict weak ones. Current forecasting models include the coupling between the atmosphere and ocean but ignore the significant energy and momentum transfers from the ocean by breaking waves, and the effect of non-breaking waves on mixed-layer depths. Here we demonstrate that by properly accounting for the dynamic air-sea interface , the peak intensity of TCs is correctly forecasted. Probability of detection for rapid intensification in Northwest Pacific increases to 90\% compared to 10- 50\% from existing models. A long-awaited breakthrough in predictions of TC intensity, especially for strong TCs, becomes achievable.</p>},
  year = {2025},
  journal = {communications earth \& environment},
}